American brokerage firm Morgan Stanley on Thursday sharply cut its India FY23 real GDP growth estimate to 7.9 per cent, mainly due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices. Analysts at the brokerage also raised their inflation forecast to 6 per cent - the upper end of the tolerance band for the RBI - and flagged stagflation risks because of the ongoing events. "We believe that the ongoing geopolitical tensions exacerbate external risks and impart a stagflationary impulse to the economy," they said. It can be noted that stagflation involves a stagnancy in output or growth, coupled with high inflation.
'You know the kind of force involved in all of this. They are not good for the country where all of this will happen.'
India was looking at tapping new markets for import of edible oils, following the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Tuesday. According to her, the country was facing various hurdles on import of edible oils due to the conflict. "Everyone knows there is a war going on between Russia and Ukraine. There are various hurdles in terms of importing oils.
During an interactive session at the 'Ideas for India' conference in London on Friday, Gandhi not only mounted a scathing attack on the Bharatiya Janata Party government but also extended an olive branch to regional parties who he had angered with his comment that they were not capable of taking on the saffron party for want of ideology.
India's merchandise exports in April 2024 marginally rose to $34.99 billion from $34.62 billion in the year-ago month, according to government data released on Wednesday. Imports too increased to $54.09 billion from $49.06 billion in April 2023.
Putin said work would be completed on building storage units for tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus on July 1, a move he likened to US nuclear deployments in Europe.
India's merchandise exports rose by 9.1 per cent to $38.13 billion in May even as the trade deficit widened to a seven-month high of $23.78 billion during the month, according to government data. Healthy growth in sectors, such as engineering, electronics, pharmaceuticals, textiles and plastics helped register growth in exports despite global economic uncertainties.
Speaking at a joint press event with Macron, Modi, who is in Paris on a two-day official visit, said a roadmap to strengthen India-France strategic ties over the next 25 years was being prepared with bold and ambitious goals on the anvil.
Indian rupee has declined by about 25 per cent since December 31, 2014, and is nearing 80 against the dollar, the Lok Sabha was informed on Monday. The value of the rupee declined from 63.33 against a dollar on December 31, 2014, to 79.41 on July 11, 2022, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a reply quoting RBI data. The exchange rate of the Indian Rupee against the dollar was Rs 78.94 per dollar as of June 30, 2022, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a written reply.
There have been growing global concerns over China's sweeping claims of sovereignty over all of the South China Sea, a huge source of hydrocarbons.
Airlines including Qantas Airways and Air Berlin altered their flight paths months ago to avoid Ukrainian air space after fighting flared up in the region, raising questions about why others did not do the same.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit the Indonesian city of Bali from November 14 to 16 to attend the G-20 summit, the ministry of external affairs announced on Thursday.
The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel on Wednesday started discussions to firm up the next bi-monthly monetary policy amid expectations that it might retain status quo on interest rate but change its monetary policy stance amid rising inflation on account of geopolitical developments.
'The consensus was that the debate was between looking backward and looking forward.' 'Trump, with his great enamourment of his own 'achievements,' was obviously looking backward, while Harris, nearly 20 years his junior, was focussing on the future, with hope,' notes Shreekant Sambrani.
Putin received more votes in comparison to the 2018 elections where he bagged 76.69 per cent of the total votes counted. The performance of the other candidates was lower than that of the previous competitors of Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2018, according to reports.
Investors have scaled back their allocation to equities as pessimism has reached "dire" levels due to cloudy economic outlook, according to the latest Bank of America (BofA) monthly global fund manager survey that covered nearly 300 money managers with combined assets of $800 billion. The survey showed that the expectations for global growth and profits are at all-time lows and cash levels are at highest since the 9/11 attacks. Interest rate hikes by central banks, the unwinding of an easy monetary regime, disruptions in global supply chains, and fears of recession have heightened market volatility since the beginning of the year.
Biden also called for Israel to respect humanitarian law and minimise the loss of civilian life, saying he counselled Israeli officials during his trip to Tel Aviv "against letting their hurt and rage mislead them into making mistakes we ourselves have made in the past."
India on Saturday pulled off a big diplomatic win after the G20 summit held under its presidency adopted a consensus declaration overcoming major differences on the Russia-Ukraine war, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for ending the "global trust deficit".
Russia on Wednesday said it was working "intensely" to create a "humanitarian corridor" for safe passage to Russian territory for Indians stuck in Kharkiv, Sumy and other conflict zones in Ukraine.
After withdrawing record funds in 2021-22, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued their sell-off in the last fiscal too and pulled out Rs 37,631 crore from Indian equities amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally. The outflow trend is likely to reverse in the current financial year since India has the best growth potential in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said. Market analysts believe that FPI flows in the current financial year would be decided by a host of factors, such as the US Federal Reserve's policy stance, oil prices movement and development in the geopolitical situation.
'There are certain critical deficiencies like shortage of fighter squadrons and force multipliers which must be addressed on priority to retain our combat edge'
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), the nation's top oil firm, has bought as much as 3 million barrels of crude oil that Russia had offered at steep discount to prevailing international rates, sources said. The purchase, made through a trader, is the first since Russia's February 24 invasion of Ukraine that brought international pressure for isolating Putin administration. Sources aware of the matter said IOC bought Urals crude for May delivery at a discount of $20-25 a barrel to dated Brent.
Tightening Russian gas supplies to Europe has led to scramble for tankers before winter sets in.
Putin on Thursday announced that the ceasefire will allow Orthodox Christians to attend services in Church on Christmas, according to the statement released by Kremlin on its website.
Since March 2020, when the Nifty50 plummeted to 7,511 following the announcement of a nationwide lockdown, the stock market has been on an upward trajectory. Over the next four years, the major market index has delivered a remarkable compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 31.5 per cent. In the past year alone, the Nifty50 has gained by 27 per cent, hitting a succession of record highs.
The resolution, sponsored among others by Algeria, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Palestine, demanded an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza and reiterated its demand that all parties comply with their obligations under international law, "notably with regard to the protection of civilians."
'What my Labour government will seek with India is a relationship based on our shared values of democracy and aspiration. That will seek a free trade agreement (FTA), we share that ambition, but also a new strategic partnership for global security, climate security, economic security'
India's economy is projected to slow to 6.5 per cent in the fiscal year starting April but will remain the fastest growing major economy in the world as it fared better in dealing with the extraordinary set of challenges the globe has faced, the Economic Survey 2022-23 said on Tuesday. India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.5 per cent in 2023-24 compares with an estimated 7 per cent expansion in current fiscal year (April 2022 to March 2023) and 8.7 per cent in the previous year. Like the rest of the world, India too faced an extraordinary set of challenges in tightening financial conditions and supply chain disruptions from a prolonged war in Europe but "withstood them better than most economies", the annual document detailing the state of the economy said.
Supply chain constraints will keep plaguing automobile companies even though demand significantly improved resulting in a 13 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase in sales in financial year 2021-22 (FY22). Executives at auto firms fear that the Russia-Ukraine war will further dent the sector's prospects of recovery as supply chains face more disruptions. "The visibility in the supply side is so hazy that it is difficult to give even one quarter projection. But all the parameters of demand like pending bookings and enquiries are increasing.
The current geopolitical situation necessitates the Indian Air Force to prepare for intense and small duration operations at a short notice, Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari said on Thursday.
The coup attempt has weakened Putin's position and in desperation he may well sanction the use of nukes, points out Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
'The Indian private sector knows how to build and run educational organisations, what is needed is a large dose of removal of restrictions.' 'Government restrictions hold back universities in India from launching medical schools,' argue Ajay Shah and Vijay Kelkar.
'If attacks escalate, there is a risk the Suez Canal may be closed.'
Biden welcomed Prime Minister Modi at the Summit and said "it is wonderful to see you again in person".
'For the next two years, we expect the bulk of earnings growth contribution from sectors like financials and energy, where the outlook remains positive, while the sectors which are linked to domestic consumption and are currently witnessing strains on margins have low salience for Nifty earnings.'
"Which foreign powers may be interested in taking advantage of unrest and instability in Manipur? Does the geopolitics of south east Asia also have a role in these events," he asked.
China is also providing supertankers and insurance coverage to move Russian Urals crude to PRC ports, as Moscow seeks vessels for exports after a G-7 oil price cap restricted the use of Western cargo services and insurance.
The White House said on Tuesday that there is no specific information about the role of Iran in the latest terrorist attack against Israel by Hamas, but it is complicit in a broad sense for funding the military wing of the terrorist group.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn over Rs 12,000 crore from Indian equities this month so far, mainly due to a sustained rise in US bond yields and the uncertain environment resulting from the Israel-Hamas conflict. However, the story takes an intriguing turn on observing FPI activity in Indian debt as they have infused over Rs 5,700 crore into the debt market during the period under review, data with the depositories showed. Going ahead, the trajectory of FPIs' investments in India will be influenced not only by global inflation and interest rate dynamics but also by the developments and intensity of the Israel-Hamas conflict, Himanshu Srivastava, associate director - manager research, Morningstar Investment Adviser India, said.
